The college football world was wishing for a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matches underwhelmed, providing lots of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went an ideal 4-0 against the spread, consisting of three fairly non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public do not seem to think so. At least in two cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been a particularly popular pick with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of overall dollars as of Monday afternoon.
"All the money is being available in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The enthusiasm for the Longhorns encompasses the futures market too. Keep in mind that massive $1.5 million wager on Texas to win everything at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' opponent, Arizona State - the biggest underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matches - is getting the most enjoy from sharp bettors. The Athletic talked to a number of bookmakers who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas - to press the line down to -12.5 or -12.
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John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "really reputable gamer."
Even though reputable money has can be found in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public wagerers are stacking on Texas.
"We would enjoy to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.
While the Texas game will be big for the books, it isn't the only game in town. We talked with numerous bookies to break down where the sports betting action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at many sportsbooks and has actually approached slightly to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly divided at a lot of sportsbooks. The total dollars bet differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however only 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the second most popular CFP wager in regards to overall tickets at BetMGM books.
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"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The Athletic. "I wouldn't be surprised if this line sneaks up a little bit more before kickoff, however I currently welcome any Boise State money."
Ohio State got the Oregon second opportunity it wanted. Are the Buckeyes ready for vengeance?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most unexpected to the general public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These groups back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home canine.
So why is OSU preferred?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic spoke with before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power scores, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker mentioned that Ohio State playing up to its power rating in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also formed his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending on the sportsbook) in this video game before highly regarded cash pushed it to the present line of -2.5. A a little greater bulk of wagers at numerous sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near to 60% of the cash has been available in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the 4 come kickoff.
"We did take some reputable money at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable stated. "It's good two-way action at that number today. The overall has actually increased three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the biggest move of any of the overalls. Money has all been on the over so far.
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Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that accommodates sharp bettors, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and immediately our Ohio bettors thought we were too low. Our opening price of Ohio State -1 has been increased to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55."
He did note, though, that the book had seen substantial buyback at the present line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
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The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's second round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The favorite flipped in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What caused the line turn? Simply put, the sports betting action.
Even though Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has actually been changed by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, gamblers are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in regards to ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars wagered), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at several sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Money is Can Be Found In On Texas'
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