Indonesia prepares to implement B40 in January
In that case, prices might rally 10%-15% in Jan-March, Mielke says
B40 will require extra 3 mln heaps feedstock, GAPKI says
Malaysia palm oil standard at highest given that mid-2022
India might withdraw import tax hike in the middle of inflation, Mistry states
(Adds expert remarks, updates Malaysia's palm oil criteria cost)
By Bernadette Christina
NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia's palm oil output is anticipated to recuperate in 2025 after an anticipated drop this year, however prices are anticipated to stay raised due to scheduled growth of the country's biodiesel mandate, industry experts said.
The benchmark price in Malaysia has increased more than 35% this year, raised by sluggish output and Indonesia's plan to increase the necessary domestic biodiesel mix to 40% in January from 35% now in an effort to minimize fuel imports.
Palm oil output next year in top manufacturer Indonesia is anticipated to recover by 1.5 million metric tons compared with a projected drop of just over a million lots this year, Julian McGill, handling director at Glenauk Economics, informed the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference on Friday.
Thomas Mielke, head of Hamburg-based research firm Oil World, said he anticipates Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by as much as 2 million lots next year after a 2.5 million lot drop in 2024.
While Indonesia's output is anticipated to improve, supply from elsewhere and of other vegetable oils is seen tightening up.
Palm oil output in neighbouring Malaysia is anticipated to dip somewhat next year after increasing by an approximated 1 million tons in 2024.
"We would require a healing in palm in 2025 because combined exports of soya, sunflower and rapeseed oils are decreasing," Mielke said.
'FRIGHTENING' PRICE SURGE
The price rise in palm oil in the previous seven weeks has been "frightening" for purchasers, Mielke stated, including that it would rally by 10%-15% in January-March if Indonesia implements the so-called B40 policy.
The Indonesia Palm Oil Association stated extra feedstock of around 3 million loads will be needed for B40 application, eroding export supply.
The present palm oil premium has currently caused palm to lose market share against other oils, Mielke included.
Malaysian palm oil prices are seen trading at around $950 to $1,050 per metric ton in 2025, McGill of Glenauk approximated.
Benchmark Malaysian palm oil touched 5,104 ringgit ($1,165.30) on Friday, the highest since mid-2022.
"Sentiment today is red-hot and incredibly bullish, we need to beware," said Dorab Mistry, director at Indian customer goods business Godrej International.
He forecast the Malaysian rate around 5,000 ringgit and above till June 2025.
Mielke and Mistry prompted Indonesia to
think about delaying
B40 execution on issue about its effect on food consumers.
Meanwhile, Mistry expected top palm oil importer India to withdraw its
import duty walking
imposed from September after elections in the state of Maharashtra in November. ($1 = 4.3800 ringgit) (Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe Writing by Fransiska Nangoy
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Indonesia Palm Oil Output Seen Recovering in 2025, However Biodiesel
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